Or so says the Economist, in a thoughtful feature article. Read the whole thing here.
I wanted to point out the demographics – as shown below. There was a big birth-bulge after the Iran-Iraq war, with the pressure to restock the country with young people. The more recent dip takes Iran back below pre-revolution birth levels: “The size of the population has doubled since the 1980s but the number of births has halved. There are no reliable figures, but experts put it at 1.6-1.9 children per woman, broadly in line with European rates. In neighbouring Iraq it is 3.5”.
The Economist also says: “The calming impact [of the demographics] on politics is unmistakable. The largest age bracket now is 25- to 29-year-olds. Soon most of them will be married and lose interest in street protests.” Do you think they are correct?
The bulge also means a big pressure on resources – on water, on pollution, and most immediately on jobs. And will Iran be like Japan in another few decades? With more pensioners than workers, and all the socio-economic pressures that means?
